Baltimore’s rushing offense is now more efficient than every team’s passing offense except … it’s own. Couple that offense with the third best pass defense (a mile behind New England and San Francisco), and you have real separation between the top team and everyone else through 12 games. Analytics twitter (aka, Ravens twitter) has dubbed the Ravens’ kicker Justin Tucker “The Only Kicker That Matters.” Truly, after three quarters of the season, Baltimore’s only weakness is run defense, where they are just barely below average. Unfortunately for the rest of the NFL, we’re unlikely to see an offense good enough at running to take advantage of it. The best opportunity is the Buffalo Bills this Sunday, who operate the league’s fourth best rushing attack (including scrambles, for now). If the Bills can stay on schedule, they might have a shot at making this a game. Otherwise, their sub-average passing and average defense will be no match for the juggernaut.
One of the two matchups of the week will be the Chiefs against the Patriots. Mahomes & co. are operating a top-4 offense and an above-average defense, while the Pats’ defense is still fantastic, and Houston’s performance doesn’t actually affect that much, they’ll need to be perfect unless the offense finds its feet. Brady is going through his worst slump in sixteen years right now, and there isn’t much positive to take from it. I pointed out on twitter this Sunday that we can compare Sanu’s performance with the Patriots with his performance in the Falcons offense. When we do, we find that his catch percentage is down from 78.5% to 60.7%. Part of that is being thrown to in tighter windows (his average separation is down), part is variance, but part of that is Brady just not putting it on him the way Ryan did. Brady’s accuracy is below average: 2.7% completion percentage below expectation (Ryan is tenth, at +2.1%, just in front of Lamar Jackson). Despite that, most analytics models, including mine, are going to pick New England to win, but the path to victory for the Chiefs is very similar to the one the Texans rode Sunday, and Mahomes at his best is one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL capable of causing the Patriots problems.
Last week, we had the 49ers (then-ranked 3rd) against the top-ranked Ravens, and this week, the now-2nd-ranked 49ers are traveling to the 4th-ranked Saints. Brees is no longer the deep threat he once was, with average intended air yards at 6.5, third lowest in the NFL this season (ahead of only Oakland’s Derek Carr at 6.4 and teammate Teddy Bridgewater at 6.2), and he’s not throwing into tight windows (his 10% aggressiveness is lowest in the NFL). He’s 4/17 with 2 interceptions on throws 20 yards or more downfield this season. Now he goes into the teeth of the defense that kept the Ravens in check last week. Offense is generally less variable than defense, but the Saints offense was recently held to a field goal by the 29th-ranked Falcons defense at home, coming off a bye week. Can’t wait to see this one.
2019 NFL aEPA: Week 13
| aEPA | Rk | Off. aEPA/P | Rk | Pass Off | Rk | Run Off | Rk | Def. aEPA/P | Rk | Pass Def | Rk | Run Def | Rk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 260.66 | 1 | 0.2602 | 1 | 0.3087 | 1 | 0.2283 | 1 | 0.0642 | 4 | 0.1223 | 3 | -0.0269 | 20 |
| SF | 217.41 | 2 | 0.0389 | 12 | 0.1393 | 6 | -0.0556 | 23 | 0.258 | 2 | 0.3879 | 1 | 0.0899 | 8 |
| NE | 198.7 | 3 | 0.0098 | 17 | 0.0233 | 16 | -0.0143 | 15 | 0.2601 | 1 | 0.3433 | 2 | 0.111 | 7 |
| NO | 117.95 | 4 | 0.0874 | 6 | 0.111 | 10 | 0.0438 | 6 | 0.0611 | 5 | 0.0178 | 10 | 0.1482 | 3 |
| KC | 85.98 | 5 | 0.113 | 4 | 0.1875 | 4 | -0.0298 | 18 | 0.0122 | 11 | 0.0908 | 5 | -0.0875 | 28 |
| DAL | 81.56 | 6 | 0.143 | 2 | 0.1854 | 5 | 0.0954 | 3 | -0.0477 | 20 | -0.0774 | 21 | -0.0209 | 19 |
| SEA | 79.33 | 7 | 0.0719 | 8 | 0.1315 | 7 | 0.0185 | 9 | 0.032 | 8 | 0.017 | 11 | 0.0846 | 10 |
| MIN | 71.19 | 8 | 0.1002 | 5 | 0.2089 | 2 | 0.0077 | 12 | -0.0015 | 16 | -0.0241 | 15 | 0.0362 | 14 |
| HOU | 57.57 | 9 | 0.1203 | 3 | 0.1901 | 3 | 0.0236 | 8 | -0.0542 | 22 | -0.1131 | 25 | 0.0559 | 11 |
| LA | 57.27 | 10 | 0.0269 | 13 | 0.0895 | 12 | -0.077 | 26 | 0.0342 | 7 | -0.023 | 14 | 0.1117 | 6 |
| PIT | 42.48 | 11 | -0.0941 | 27 | -0.0418 | 23 | -0.1638 | 31 | 0.1389 | 3 | 0.1146 | 4 | 0.1802 | 1 |
| TB | 28.17 | 12 | 0.0049 | 19 | 0.0163 | 18 | -0.009 | 14 | 0.0293 | 10 | -0.0309 | 16 | 0.1706 | 2 |
| TEN | 23.25 | 13 | 0.001 | 20 | 0.0596 | 15 | -0.0724 | 24 | 0.0295 | 9 | -0.0397 | 18 | 0.1473 | 5 |
| GB | 21.54 | 14 | 0.086 | 7 | 0.1264 | 9 | 0.0142 | 10 | -0.0516 | 21 | -0.0121 | 13 | -0.1042 | 30 |
| BUF | 10.9 | 15 | 0.02 | 14 | -0.0188 | 20 | 0.0754 | 4 | -0.0004 | 15 | 0.0558 | 7 | -0.1028 | 29 |
| CLE | 3.91 | 16 | -0.0016 | 21 | -0.0274 | 21 | 0.0341 | 7 | 0.0068 | 14 | 0.0368 | 9 | -0.0346 | 24 |
| IND | -13.44 | 17 | 0.0113 | 15 | -0.0413 | 22 | 0.0672 | 5 | -0.0362 | 19 | -0.0393 | 17 | -0.0321 | 22 |
| ATL | -33.6 | 18 | 0.0575 | 9 | 0.0843 | 13 | -0.0251 | 17 | -0.1077 | 29 | -0.2237 | 31 | 0.0245 | 15 |
| LAC | -35.93 | 19 | 0.0079 | 18 | 0.0769 | 14 | -0.11 | 27 | -0.0611 | 23 | -0.0661 | 20 | -0.06 | 27 |
| PHI | -41.34 | 20 | -0.0177 | 22 | -0.0145 | 19 | -0.0482 | 21 | -0.0291 | 18 | -0.1041 | 24 | 0.0857 | 9 |
| CHI | -41.78 | 21 | -0.1083 | 29 | -0.0827 | 26 | -0.1669 | 32 | 0.052 | 6 | 0.0493 | 8 | 0.0457 | 13 |
| OAK | -44.68 | 22 | 0.0553 | 10 | 0.1308 | 8 | -0.0318 | 20 | -0.1076 | 28 | -0.1714 | 27 | -0.0274 | 21 |
| CAR | -46.79 | 23 | -0.0471 | 23 | -0.079 | 25 | 0.0128 | 11 | -0.0106 | 17 | 0.072 | 6 | -0.1421 | 32 |
| DET | -53.14 | 24 | 0.01 | 16 | 0.0963 | 11 | -0.1251 | 28 | -0.0667 | 24 | -0.0906 | 23 | -0.0413 | 25 |
| DEN | -58.73 | 25 | -0.0844 | 25 | -0.1198 | 28 | -0.0317 | 19 | 0.0074 | 13 | 0.0068 | 12 | 0.0175 | 16 |
| ARI | -68.35 | 26 | 0.0485 | 11 | 0.0212 | 17 | 0.1068 | 2 | -0.1262 | 31 | -0.2093 | 30 | 0.0142 | 17 |
| JAX | -93.47 | 27 | -0.0507 | 24 | -0.0751 | 24 | -0.004 | 13 | -0.0694 | 25 | -0.0503 | 19 | -0.1067 | 31 |
| NYJ | -108.65 | 28 | -0.1646 | 32 | -0.1947 | 31 | -0.1326 | 30 | 0.0121 | 12 | -0.0776 | 22 | 0.148 | 4 |
| NYG | -150.9 | 29 | -0.1048 | 28 | -0.155 | 30 | -0.0214 | 16 | -0.0897 | 27 | -0.2019 | 29 | 0.0481 | 12 |
| CIN | -158.44 | 30 | -0.0925 | 26 | -0.1146 | 27 | -0.0514 | 22 | -0.1119 | 30 | -0.1762 | 28 | -0.0465 | 26 |
| WAS | -170.86 | 31 | -0.1439 | 31 | -0.212 | 32 | -0.0736 | 25 | -0.0889 | 26 | -0.1629 | 26 | -0.0088 | 18 |
| MIA | -237.76 | 32 | -0.1297 | 30 | -0.1327 | 29 | -0.1284 | 29 | -0.172 | 32 | -0.2987 | 32 | -0.0337 | 23 |