I’ve done a lot of work cleaning up and reorganizing my R code the last two weeks, and not much time analyzing anything. One of the things I am working on is a model of variance, which is necessary to provide win probabilities. So far, I am coming up with variance measures higher than competing measures such as DVOA and Elo, which is actually bad. Elo’s win probability is well-calibrated. If anything, Elo seems to be giving underdogs too much of a chance to win games.
I’ve been on a scraping spree! I’ve written R functions to scrape Elo from fivethirtyeight, the tables from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, and ESPN’s QBR, pass rush win rate and pass block win rate. PRWR and PBWR are just reported as percentages, and updated each Tuesday by editing a single blog post. That choice makes them full-season stats, rather than a game-to-game stats, but I am archiving it weekly going forward so they can be used in pairwise matrices. All of these data will be available after the Super Bowl, when I open up the git repo.
| aEPA | Rk | Off. aEPA/P | Rk | Pass Off | Rk | Run Off | Rk | Def. aEPA/P | Rk | Pass Def | Rk | Run Def | Rk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 20.12 | 1 | 0.2465 | 1 | 0.3101 | 1 | 0.1998 | 1 | 0.0743 | 4 | 0.1174 | 4 | -0.0024 | 18 |
| SF | 14.47 | 2 | 0.0491 | 12 | 0.1402 | 6 | -0.0497 | 22 | 0.1927 | 2 | 0.2693 | 2 | 0.0798 | 8 |
| NE | 12.96 | 3 | -0.0035 | 20 | -0.0025 | 18 | -0.0052 | 14 | 0.2273 | 1 | 0.3035 | 1 | 0.1013 | 6 |
| NO | 10.41 | 4 | 0.134 | 4 | 0.2064 | 3 | 0.0166 | 10 | 0.0367 | 9 | 0.008 | 15 | 0.0942 | 7 |
| KC | 10.04 | 5 | 0.1373 | 3 | 0.2226 | 2 | -0.0167 | 15 | 0.0382 | 8 | 0.1213 | 3 | -0.0703 | 29 |
| DAL | 6.62 | 6 | 0.142 | 2 | 0.1594 | 4 | 0.1272 | 2 | -0.0424 | 21 | -0.0725 | 19 | -0.0049 | 19 |
| MIN | 6.24 | 7 | 0.0551 | 9 | 0.1533 | 5 | -0.0209 | 17 | 0.0499 | 7 | 0.0511 | 8 | 0.0536 | 9 |
| TB | 4.98 | 8 | 0.0036 | 18 | 0.0516 | 15 | -0.0784 | 25 | 0.0718 | 5 | 0.0347 | 11 | 0.1555 | 2 |
| LA | 4.65 | 9 | 0.0398 | 13 | 0.106 | 10 | -0.0722 | 24 | 0.0278 | 11 | 0.022 | 13 | 0.0335 | 13 |
| TEN | 3.79 | 10 | 0.0385 | 14 | 0.0815 | 13 | -0.0034 | 12 | 0.0267 | 12 | -0.0168 | 17 | 0.1032 | 5 |
| SEA | 3.12 | 11 | 0.0493 | 11 | 0.0943 | 11 | -0.0045 | 13 | 0.005 | 14 | 0.0078 | 16 | 0.0145 | 16 |
| GB | 2.99 | 12 | 0.0645 | 7 | 0.0527 | 14 | 0.0731 | 5 | -0.0129 | 17 | 0.0314 | 12 | -0.0699 | 28 |
| BUF | 2.15 | 13 | 0.0038 | 17 | -0.0241 | 20 | 0.0469 | 7 | 0.0337 | 10 | 0.0804 | 6 | -0.0431 | 25 |
| HOU | 2.06 | 14 | 0.0894 | 5 | 0.1132 | 9 | 0.0641 | 6 | -0.0605 | 23 | -0.118 | 24 | 0.0507 | 10 |
| PIT | 0.86 | 15 | -0.1333 | 31 | -0.0795 | 25 | -0.1971 | 32 | 0.1388 | 3 | 0.1092 | 5 | 0.1819 | 1 |
| ATL | 0.79 | 16 | 0.0877 | 6 | 0.1398 | 7 | -0.0332 | 21 | -0.0833 | 25 | -0.1664 | 27 | 0.0185 | 15 |
| PHI | -1.41 | 17 | -0.0105 | 22 | -0.0117 | 19 | -0.0284 | 20 | -0.0117 | 16 | -0.098 | 23 | 0.1301 | 3 |
| IND | -1.44 | 18 | 0.0107 | 16 | -0.059 | 22 | 0.0893 | 4 | -0.0401 | 20 | -0.0808 | 20 | 0.0249 | 14 |
| CLE | -1.7 | 19 | -0.0017 | 19 | -0.0297 | 21 | 0.0376 | 8 | -0.0239 | 18 | 0.0098 | 14 | -0.0622 | 27 |
| LAC | -2.19 | 20 | 0.0162 | 15 | 0.0853 | 12 | -0.1046 | 29 | -0.0542 | 22 | -0.0721 | 18 | -0.0372 | 24 |
| DEN | -2.45 | 21 | -0.0526 | 23 | -0.0673 | 23 | -0.0185 | 16 | 0.0165 | 13 | 0.0457 | 10 | -0.0141 | 21 |
| ARI | -2.87 | 22 | 0.0545 | 10 | 0.0141 | 17 | 0.1225 | 3 | -0.0966 | 26 | -0.1629 | 26 | 0.007 | 17 |
| CHI | -3.49 | 23 | -0.1073 | 28 | -0.0743 | 24 | -0.1638 | 31 | 0.0536 | 6 | 0.0502 | 9 | 0.0485 | 12 |
| OAK | -3.85 | 24 | 0.0598 | 8 | 0.1337 | 8 | -0.0244 | 18 | -0.1223 | 29 | -0.2009 | 30 | -0.0156 | 22 |
| CAR | -5.81 | 25 | -0.0565 | 24 | -0.1004 | 27 | 0.0177 | 9 | -0.0351 | 19 | 0.0514 | 7 | -0.167 | 32 |
| DET | -6.32 | 26 | -0.0098 | 21 | 0.0458 | 16 | -0.1 | 27 | -0.0802 | 24 | -0.1353 | 25 | -0.0061 | 20 |
| NYJ | -9.03 | 27 | -0.16 | 32 | -0.1888 | 32 | -0.1238 | 30 | -9e-04 | 15 | -0.0825 | 21 | 0.1192 | 4 |
| NYG | -10.23 | 28 | -0.0671 | 26 | -0.1174 | 30 | 0.0153 | 11 | -0.1009 | 28 | -0.2164 | 31 | 0.0495 | 11 |
| JAX | -10.29 | 29 | -0.0658 | 25 | -0.0905 | 26 | -0.0275 | 19 | -0.0992 | 27 | -0.094 | 22 | -0.1138 | 31 |
| CIN | -13.55 | 30 | -0.0889 | 27 | -0.114 | 28 | -0.0623 | 23 | -0.135 | 31 | -0.1939 | 29 | -0.0739 | 30 |
| WAS | -14.12 | 31 | -0.1118 | 30 | -0.1452 | 31 | -0.0841 | 26 | -0.1251 | 30 | -0.1875 | 28 | -0.0542 | 26 |
| MIA | -17.51 | 32 | -0.1088 | 29 | -0.1169 | 29 | -0.103 | 28 | -0.1729 | 32 | -0.3043 | 32 | -0.0194 | 23 |