Author: @niljms

The final games of the regular season have been played, and now, 12 teams enter the playoff tournament to determine the championship, but the real top team in 2019, regardless of the next eleven games is the Baltimore Ravens, who finish with the top passing and rushing offense and the fourth best pass defense. San Francisco ends the season as the only member of a second tier, and then New Orleans, New England and Kansas City make up a third tier.

	aEPA	Rk	Off. aEPA/P	Rk	Pass Off	Rk	Run Off	Rk	Def. aEPA/P	Rk	Pass Def	Rk	Run Def	Rk
BAL	19.6	1	0.2303	1	0.2794	1	0.1982	1	0.0852	5	0.1301	4	0.0074	18
SF	14.35	2	0.0666	8	0.16	4	-0.0344	19	0.1728	2	0.2411	2	0.0749	8
NO	11.6	3	0.1379	4	0.2271	2	-0.0046	13	0.0514	7	0.0163	13	0.1223	4
NE	10.7	4	-0.0065	17	-0.0119	18	0.0013	11	0.1906	1	0.2478	1	0.0929	6
KC	9.4	5	0.1406	2	0.2081	3	0.0194	10	0.0265	12	0.1058	5	-0.0775	29
DAL	7.76	6	0.1391	3	0.155	5	0.1277	2	-0.0233	18	-0.0394	18	-0.0071	21
MIN	5.59	7	0.0543	13	0.1495	6	-0.02	16	0.0391	8	0.0417	10	0.037	12
TB	5.26	8	-0.0067	18	0.0325	16	-0.0737	24	0.087	4	0.0561	7	0.1587	2
TEN	5.2	9	0.0636	9	0.1033	11	0.0333	8	0.0265	11	-0.006	15	0.0855	7
LA	4.77	10	0.0422	14	0.1172	10	-0.0801	25	0.0266	10	0.0069	14	0.0521	9
SEA	3.17	11	0.0668	7	0.1236	8	-0.001	12	-0.0115	16	-0.0072	16	-0.0071	22
GB	2.73	12	0.0583	10	0.0483	14	0.0635	6	-0.0142	17	0.0414	11	-0.0892	30
PIT	1.21	13	-0.1447	31	-0.0979	27	-0.203	32	0.1526	3	0.1353	3	0.1777	1
BUF	1.1	14	-0.0102	21	-0.0523	21	0.047	7	0.0301	9	0.0661	6	-0.0281	23
ATL	0.49	15	0.073	6	0.1207	9	-0.035	20	-0.0724	23	-0.1442	26	0.0154	14
HOU	0.36	16	0.0872	5	0.0967	13	0.0818	4	-0.085	25	-0.1373	25	0.01	17
PHI	-0.73	17	-0.0105	22	-0.0146	19	-0.0232	17	-0.0024	15	-0.0958	22	0.153	3
LAC	-1.57	18	0.0271	15	0.0983	12	-0.0951	29	-0.0577	22	-0.0559	19	-0.0657	26
CHI	-2.78	19	-0.0954	29	-0.0649	23	-0.1475	31	0.0534	6	0.0517	8	0.0455	10
IND	-2.8	20	-3e-04	16	-0.0636	22	0.0688	5	-0.0508	21	-0.102	23	0.0317	13
ARI	-2.91	21	0.0569	11	0.0321	17	0.0999	3	-0.0979	27	-0.1694	27	0.0121	16
DEN	-2.97	22	-0.0654	24	-0.0708	25	-0.0465	22	0.0208	13	0.0438	9	0.001	20
CLE	-3.03	23	-0.0088	20	-0.0364	20	0.0282	9	-0.0374	19	-0.0085	17	-0.0702	28
OAK	-3.31	24	0.0558	12	0.136	7	-0.0388	21	-0.1096	29	-0.1991	30	0.0128	15
DET	-6.12	25	-0.0081	19	0.0372	15	-0.0822	27	-0.0773	24	-0.1348	24	0.0017	19
CAR	-6.98	26	-0.0691	25	-0.1048	29	-0.0081	15	-0.039	20	0.0327	12	-0.1491	32
NYJ	-7.8	27	-0.153	32	-0.1704	31	-0.134	30	0.0131	14	-0.0595	20	0.1189	5
JAX	-8.64	28	-0.0532	23	-0.0681	24	-0.0319	18	-0.0859	26	-0.0833	21	-0.093	31
NYG	-10.91	29	-0.0744	27	-0.1178	30	-0.006	14	-0.1022	28	-0.2147	31	0.0421	11
CIN	-12.05	30	-0.074	26	-0.0988	28	-0.0483	23	-0.1263	31	-0.1826	29	-0.0685	27
WAS	-15.25	31	-0.1342	30	-0.1824	32	-0.0818	26	-0.121	30	-0.182	28	-0.0518	25
MIA	-15.43	32	-0.0755	28	-0.0727	26	-0.0895	28	-0.1715	32	-0.2928	32	-0.0296	24

I’ve done a lot of work cleaning up and reorganizing my R code the last two weeks, and not much time analyzing anything. One of the things I am working on is a model of variance, which is necessary to provide win probabilities. So far, I am coming up with variance measures higher than competing measures such as DVOA and Elo, which is actually bad. Elo’s win probability is well-calibrated. If anything, Elo seems to be giving underdogs too much of a chance to win games.

I’ve been on a scraping spree! I’ve written R functions to scrape Elo from fivethirtyeight, the tables from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, and ESPN’s QBR, pass rush win rate and pass block win rate. PRWR and PBWR are just reported as percentages, and updated each Tuesday by editing a single blog post. That choice makes them full-season stats, rather than a game-to-game stats, but I am archiving it weekly going forward so they can be used in pairwise matrices. All of these data will be available after the Super Bowl, when I open up the git repo.

	aEPA	Rk	Off. aEPA/P	Rk	Pass Off	Rk	Run Off	Rk	Def. aEPA/P	Rk	Pass Def	Rk	Run Def	Rk
BAL	20.12	1	0.2465	1	0.3101	1	0.1998	1	0.0743	4	0.1174	4	-0.0024	18
SF	14.47	2	0.0491	12	0.1402	6	-0.0497	22	0.1927	2	0.2693	2	0.0798	8
NE	12.96	3	-0.0035	20	-0.0025	18	-0.0052	14	0.2273	1	0.3035	1	0.1013	6
NO	10.41	4	0.134	4	0.2064	3	0.0166	10	0.0367	9	0.008	15	0.0942	7
KC	10.04	5	0.1373	3	0.2226	2	-0.0167	15	0.0382	8	0.1213	3	-0.0703	29
DAL	6.62	6	0.142	2	0.1594	4	0.1272	2	-0.0424	21	-0.0725	19	-0.0049	19
MIN	6.24	7	0.0551	9	0.1533	5	-0.0209	17	0.0499	7	0.0511	8	0.0536	9
TB	4.98	8	0.0036	18	0.0516	15	-0.0784	25	0.0718	5	0.0347	11	0.1555	2
LA	4.65	9	0.0398	13	0.106	10	-0.0722	24	0.0278	11	0.022	13	0.0335	13
TEN	3.79	10	0.0385	14	0.0815	13	-0.0034	12	0.0267	12	-0.0168	17	0.1032	5
SEA	3.12	11	0.0493	11	0.0943	11	-0.0045	13	0.005	14	0.0078	16	0.0145	16
GB	2.99	12	0.0645	7	0.0527	14	0.0731	5	-0.0129	17	0.0314	12	-0.0699	28
BUF	2.15	13	0.0038	17	-0.0241	20	0.0469	7	0.0337	10	0.0804	6	-0.0431	25
HOU	2.06	14	0.0894	5	0.1132	9	0.0641	6	-0.0605	23	-0.118	24	0.0507	10
PIT	0.86	15	-0.1333	31	-0.0795	25	-0.1971	32	0.1388	3	0.1092	5	0.1819	1
ATL	0.79	16	0.0877	6	0.1398	7	-0.0332	21	-0.0833	25	-0.1664	27	0.0185	15
PHI	-1.41	17	-0.0105	22	-0.0117	19	-0.0284	20	-0.0117	16	-0.098	23	0.1301	3
IND	-1.44	18	0.0107	16	-0.059	22	0.0893	4	-0.0401	20	-0.0808	20	0.0249	14
CLE	-1.7	19	-0.0017	19	-0.0297	21	0.0376	8	-0.0239	18	0.0098	14	-0.0622	27
LAC	-2.19	20	0.0162	15	0.0853	12	-0.1046	29	-0.0542	22	-0.0721	18	-0.0372	24
DEN	-2.45	21	-0.0526	23	-0.0673	23	-0.0185	16	0.0165	13	0.0457	10	-0.0141	21
ARI	-2.87	22	0.0545	10	0.0141	17	0.1225	3	-0.0966	26	-0.1629	26	0.007	17
CHI	-3.49	23	-0.1073	28	-0.0743	24	-0.1638	31	0.0536	6	0.0502	9	0.0485	12
OAK	-3.85	24	0.0598	8	0.1337	8	-0.0244	18	-0.1223	29	-0.2009	30	-0.0156	22
CAR	-5.81	25	-0.0565	24	-0.1004	27	0.0177	9	-0.0351	19	0.0514	7	-0.167	32
DET	-6.32	26	-0.0098	21	0.0458	16	-0.1	27	-0.0802	24	-0.1353	25	-0.0061	20
NYJ	-9.03	27	-0.16	32	-0.1888	32	-0.1238	30	-9e-04	15	-0.0825	21	0.1192	4
NYG	-10.23	28	-0.0671	26	-0.1174	30	0.0153	11	-0.1009	28	-0.2164	31	0.0495	11
JAX	-10.29	29	-0.0658	25	-0.0905	26	-0.0275	19	-0.0992	27	-0.094	22	-0.1138	31
CIN	-13.55	30	-0.0889	27	-0.114	28	-0.0623	23	-0.135	31	-0.1939	29	-0.0739	30
WAS	-14.12	31	-0.1118	30	-0.1452	31	-0.0841	26	-0.1251	30	-0.1875	28	-0.0542	26
MIA	-17.51	32	-0.1088	29	-0.1169	29	-0.103	28	-0.1729	32	-0.3043	32	-0.0194	23

Last week, I highlighted three “big games,” Buffalo vs Baltimore, San Francisco vs New Orleans and Kansas City vs New England: and in a wonderful turn of events, they were all competitive and all six teams involved had positive net aEPA. This weekend, we don’t get the same level of competition. The 49ers (2nd/8th off./2nd def.) get a break after playing two of the top three teams other than themselves, and are prohibitive home favorites against the Atlanta Falcons (18/9/27), for whom the hits keep on coming, placing Desmond Trufant and Calvin Ridley on injured reserve after their 40-20 defeat of the Panthers. The Ravens (1/1/4) are hosting the hapless Jets (27/32/15). The Patriots (3/21/1) go to Ohio to play the Bengals (30/28/30), but instead of getting takes about the expected return of the Patriots’ offense, we’ve gotten Spygate II. Kansas City (5/3/10) gets division rival Denver (20/24/11), who will try to pull of consecutive upsets against teams that beat the Patriots. The Saints (4/4/9) host the Colts (19/16/19) on Monday Night Football. All of these games could have double-digit point spreads.

The game of the week is undeniably the LA Rams (7/14/6) at the Dallas Cowboys (8/2/23). My model very slightly favors the Rams, despite home field, which hasn’t been worth much year-to-date (away teams have outscored home teams by 45 points so far this season). When Dallas has the ball, I think this comes down to whether the game plan lets Dak Prescott throw the ball. The run game will be strength against strength, but Dak’s got the second-highest aEPA/play on passing downs, and the Rams are only 12th against the pass. That’s still good, but if the Cowboys’ leverage their elite pass protection and excellent passer, they should be able to pull out of this slide. The problem is that the Rams should be able to move and score at will on this mediocre Cowboys defense. The other problem is that there is next to no chance that the Cowboys will alter their game plan and unleash Dak. They simply overvalue running throughout the organization.

2019 NFL aEPA: Week 14

	aEPA	Rk	Off. aEPA/P	Rk	Pass Off	Rk	Run Off	Rk	Def. aEPA/P	Rk	Pass Def	Rk	Run Def	Rk
BAL	269.36	1	0.2387	1	0.2898	1	0.2019	1	0.0844	4	0.1382	3	-0.0066	18
SF	228.88	2	0.0678	8	0.173	5	-0.0404	22	0.2237	2	0.319	2	0.0966	8
NE	180.44	3	-0.0088	21	-0.0045	18	-0.0154	14	0.2446	1	0.3245	1	0.1006	7
NO	120	4	0.1135	4	0.1638	6	0.0279	9	0.033	9	-0.0085	14	0.1216	5
KC	111.84	5	0.1219	3	0.1968	3	-0.0242	18	0.0296	10	0.1164	5	-0.0806	29
MIN	82.38	6	0.0897	6	0.2081	2	-0.0123	13	0.0165	14	-0.0001	13	0.0464	12
LA	80.98	7	0.0379	14	0.1054	10	-0.0672	25	0.0488	6	0.0079	12	0.1066	6
DAL	77.51	8	0.1442	2	0.1834	4	0.0975	3	-0.0587	23	-0.0972	23	-0.023	21
SEA	64.49	9	0.0593	10	0.1026	11	0.0176	11	0.0218	13	0.0085	11	0.062	10
TEN	47.13	10	0.0264	15	0.0957	14	-0.0522	24	0.0337	8	-0.0248	17	0.1347	4
PIT	43.58	11	-0.1023	28	-0.0342	21	-0.1814	32	0.1473	3	0.1235	4	0.1881	1
TB	38.34	12	0.0072	17	0.0296	16	-0.0285	19	0.0358	7	-0.0198	16	0.1577	2
HOU	29.1	13	0.1028	5	0.1375	7	0.0561	6	-0.0747	24	-0.1477	26	0.0576	11
GB	21.53	14	0.081	7	0.1003	12	0.0418	8	-0.049	21	-0.014	15	-0.0961	30
BUF	13	15	-0.0017	19	-0.0443	22	0.0567	5	0.0221	12	0.0696	6	-0.0592	26
LAC	2.24	16	0.0452	12	0.1271	8	-0.0867	27	-0.0471	20	-0.043	18	-0.0595	27
CLE	-0.16	17	0.0027	18	-0.0284	20	0.0465	7	-0.0016	16	0.032	10	-0.0447	25
ATL	-21.15	18	0.0651	9	0.0962	13	-0.0242	17	-0.0995	27	-0.1933	28	0.0101	16
IND	-21.84	19	0.008	16	-0.0486	23	0.0719	4	-0.0416	19	-0.062	19	-0.0052	17
DEN	-29.44	20	-0.0597	24	-0.0758	25	-0.0294	20	0.024	11	0.0614	7	-0.0103	19
CHI	-31.8	21	-0.0961	27	-0.0594	24	-0.1703	31	0.0557	5	0.06	8	0.0436	13
PHI	-46.88	22	-0.0221	22	-0.0223	19	-0.0467	23	-0.0301	18	-0.1069	24	0.085	9
DET	-54.46	23	-0.0025	20	0.077	15	-0.1319	29	-0.0518	22	-0.0797	20	-0.0218	20
OAK	-61.55	24	0.0576	11	0.1238	9	-0.017	15	-0.1287	31	-0.2016	30	-0.0413	24
CAR	-64.27	25	-0.0583	23	-0.1049	27	0.0224	10	-0.019	17	0.0587	9	-0.1437	32
ARI	-70.7	26	0.0401	13	0.0104	17	0.0995	2	-0.1184	29	-0.2136	31	0.0263	15
NYJ	-128.73	27	-0.1701	32	-0.1955	31	-0.147	30	0.0008	15	-0.0908	21	0.1391	3
JAX	-131.94	28	-0.0626	25	-0.0934	26	-0.0095	12	-0.0995	28	-0.0924	22	-0.1188	31
NYG	-159.16	29	-0.1057	29	-0.1597	30	-0.0208	16	-0.0885	26	-0.1941	29	0.0424	14
CIN	-166.58	30	-0.0857	26	-0.116	28	-0.0356	21	-0.1198	30	-0.1746	27	-0.0635	28
WAS	-175.79	31	-0.142	31	-0.2075	32	-0.0732	26	-0.087	25	-0.142	25	-0.0321	22
MIA	-246.35	32	-0.12	30	-0.1286	29	-0.1059	28	-0.1782	32	-0.3105	32	-0.0323	23

Statistics are through Week 13. Computed with data pulled from official NFL play-by-play with nflscrapR, and adjusted for strength of schedule using a method similar to Massey (1997).

Baltimore’s rushing offense is now more efficient than every team’s passing offense except … it’s own. Couple that offense with the third best pass defense (a mile behind New England and San Francisco), and you have real separation between the top team and everyone else through 12 games. Analytics twitter (aka, Ravens twitter) has dubbed the Ravens’ kicker Justin Tucker “The Only Kicker That Matters.” Truly, after three quarters of the season, Baltimore’s only weakness is run defense, where they are just barely below average. Unfortunately for the rest of the NFL, we’re unlikely to see an offense good enough at running to take advantage of it. The best opportunity is the Buffalo Bills this Sunday, who operate the league’s fourth best rushing attack (including scrambles, for now). If the Bills can stay on schedule, they might have a shot at making this a game. Otherwise, their sub-average passing and average defense will be no match for the juggernaut.

One of the two matchups of the week will be the Chiefs against the Patriots. Mahomes & co. are operating a top-4 offense and an above-average defense, while the Pats’ defense is still fantastic, and Houston’s performance doesn’t actually affect that much, they’ll need to be perfect unless the offense finds its feet. Brady is going through his worst slump in sixteen years right now, and there isn’t much positive to take from it. I pointed out on twitter this Sunday that we can compare Sanu’s performance with the Patriots with his performance in the Falcons offense. When we do, we find that his catch percentage is down from 78.5% to 60.7%. Part of that is being thrown to in tighter windows (his average separation is down), part is variance, but part of that is Brady just not putting it on him the way Ryan did. Brady’s accuracy is below average: 2.7% completion percentage below expectation (Ryan is tenth, at +2.1%, just in front of Lamar Jackson). Despite that, most analytics models, including mine, are going to pick New England to win, but the path to victory for the Chiefs is very similar to the one the Texans rode Sunday, and Mahomes at his best is one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL capable of causing the Patriots problems.

Last week, we had the 49ers (then-ranked 3rd) against the top-ranked Ravens, and this week, the now-2nd-ranked 49ers are traveling to the 4th-ranked Saints. Brees is no longer the deep threat he once was, with average intended air yards at 6.5, third lowest in the NFL this season (ahead of only Oakland’s Derek Carr at 6.4 and teammate Teddy Bridgewater at 6.2), and he’s not throwing into tight windows (his 10% aggressiveness is lowest in the NFL). He’s 4/17 with 2 interceptions on throws 20 yards or more downfield this season. Now he goes into the teeth of the defense that kept the Ravens in check last week. Offense is generally less variable than defense, but the Saints offense was recently held to a field goal by the 29th-ranked Falcons defense at home, coming off a bye week. Can’t wait to see this one.

2019 NFL aEPA: Week 13

	aEPA	Rk	Off. aEPA/P	Rk	Pass Off	Rk	Run Off	Rk	Def. aEPA/P	Rk	Pass Def	Rk	Run Def	Rk
BAL	260.66	1	0.2602	1	0.3087	1	0.2283	1	0.0642	4	0.1223	3	-0.0269	20
SF	217.41	2	0.0389	12	0.1393	6	-0.0556	23	0.258	2	0.3879	1	0.0899	8
NE	198.7	3	0.0098	17	0.0233	16	-0.0143	15	0.2601	1	0.3433	2	0.111	7
NO	117.95	4	0.0874	6	0.111	10	0.0438	6	0.0611	5	0.0178	10	0.1482	3
KC	85.98	5	0.113	4	0.1875	4	-0.0298	18	0.0122	11	0.0908	5	-0.0875	28
DAL	81.56	6	0.143	2	0.1854	5	0.0954	3	-0.0477	20	-0.0774	21	-0.0209	19
SEA	79.33	7	0.0719	8	0.1315	7	0.0185	9	0.032	8	0.017	11	0.0846	10
MIN	71.19	8	0.1002	5	0.2089	2	0.0077	12	-0.0015	16	-0.0241	15	0.0362	14
HOU	57.57	9	0.1203	3	0.1901	3	0.0236	8	-0.0542	22	-0.1131	25	0.0559	11
LA	57.27	10	0.0269	13	0.0895	12	-0.077	26	0.0342	7	-0.023	14	0.1117	6
PIT	42.48	11	-0.0941	27	-0.0418	23	-0.1638	31	0.1389	3	0.1146	4	0.1802	1
TB	28.17	12	0.0049	19	0.0163	18	-0.009	14	0.0293	10	-0.0309	16	0.1706	2
TEN	23.25	13	0.001	20	0.0596	15	-0.0724	24	0.0295	9	-0.0397	18	0.1473	5
GB	21.54	14	0.086	7	0.1264	9	0.0142	10	-0.0516	21	-0.0121	13	-0.1042	30
BUF	10.9	15	0.02	14	-0.0188	20	0.0754	4	-0.0004	15	0.0558	7	-0.1028	29
CLE	3.91	16	-0.0016	21	-0.0274	21	0.0341	7	0.0068	14	0.0368	9	-0.0346	24
IND	-13.44	17	0.0113	15	-0.0413	22	0.0672	5	-0.0362	19	-0.0393	17	-0.0321	22
ATL	-33.6	18	0.0575	9	0.0843	13	-0.0251	17	-0.1077	29	-0.2237	31	0.0245	15
LAC	-35.93	19	0.0079	18	0.0769	14	-0.11	27	-0.0611	23	-0.0661	20	-0.06	27
PHI	-41.34	20	-0.0177	22	-0.0145	19	-0.0482	21	-0.0291	18	-0.1041	24	0.0857	9
CHI	-41.78	21	-0.1083	29	-0.0827	26	-0.1669	32	0.052	6	0.0493	8	0.0457	13
OAK	-44.68	22	0.0553	10	0.1308	8	-0.0318	20	-0.1076	28	-0.1714	27	-0.0274	21
CAR	-46.79	23	-0.0471	23	-0.079	25	0.0128	11	-0.0106	17	0.072	6	-0.1421	32
DET	-53.14	24	0.01	16	0.0963	11	-0.1251	28	-0.0667	24	-0.0906	23	-0.0413	25
DEN	-58.73	25	-0.0844	25	-0.1198	28	-0.0317	19	0.0074	13	0.0068	12	0.0175	16
ARI	-68.35	26	0.0485	11	0.0212	17	0.1068	2	-0.1262	31	-0.2093	30	0.0142	17
JAX	-93.47	27	-0.0507	24	-0.0751	24	-0.004	13	-0.0694	25	-0.0503	19	-0.1067	31
NYJ	-108.65	28	-0.1646	32	-0.1947	31	-0.1326	30	0.0121	12	-0.0776	22	0.148	4
NYG	-150.9	29	-0.1048	28	-0.155	30	-0.0214	16	-0.0897	27	-0.2019	29	0.0481	12
CIN	-158.44	30	-0.0925	26	-0.1146	27	-0.0514	22	-0.1119	30	-0.1762	28	-0.0465	26
WAS	-170.86	31	-0.1439	31	-0.212	32	-0.0736	25	-0.0889	26	-0.1629	26	-0.0088	18
MIA	-237.76	32	-0.1297	30	-0.1327	29	-0.1284	29	-0.172	32	-0.2987	32	-0.0337	23

Statistics are through Week 13. Computed with data pulled from official NFL play-by-play with nflscrapR, and adjusted for strength of schedule using a method similar to Massey (1997).

Through week 12, the Ravens’ running game is better than any other team’s total offense, and better than every team’s passing offense except the Vikings and … the Ravens. Baltimore’s offense is just miles ahead of everyone else right now, and whether or not it is sustainable, it’s been a joy to watch. On Sunday, the Ravens host the 49ers and the best pass defense in the NFL.

2019 NFL aEPA: Week 12 Full Table

	aEPA	Rk	Off. aEPA/P	Rk	Pass Off	Rk	Run Off	Rk	Def. aEPA/P	Rk	Pass Def	Rk	Run Def	Rk
BAL	243.81	1	0.2562	1	0.3012	1	0.2336	1	0.0636	5	0.1161	3	-0.025	20
NE	201.42	2	0.0037	19	0.0257	17	-0.0372	20	0.287	1	0.3911	2	0.0992	6
SF	193.83	3	0.0249	12	0.1226	10	-0.0617	23	0.2613	2	0.3916	1	0.0748	12
NO	108.26	4	0.0925	5	0.1251	9	0.037	6	0.048	6	-0.0025	12	0.1464	5
DAL	100.68	5	0.1612	2	0.2185	3	0.0914	3	-0.0341	20	-0.0375	16	-0.0445	25
KC	87.82	6	0.1274	3	0.2023	4	-0.0238	18	0.0052	14	0.0776	5	-0.0823	28
MIN	84.16	7	0.1104	4	0.2369	2	0.0076	13	0.0099	11	-0.028	14	0.0848	8
SEA	60.66	8	0.0606	11	0.1365	6	-0.018	17	0.0272	8	0.0037	11	0.0815	10
HOU	45.5	9	0.0848	8	0.1255	8	0.0311	7	-0.033	19	-0.0926	25	0.081	11
TEN	26.75	10	-0.0015	20	0.0679	15	-0.087	25	0.0394	7	-0.0293	15	0.1582	3
PIT	20.63	11	-0.112	28	-0.07	24	-0.1718	32	0.1315	3	0.0967	4	0.1858	1
GB	19.78	12	0.0902	6	0.1257	7	0.0308	8	-0.0546	23	-0.0045	13	-0.1208	31
TB	14.04	13	0.0175	13	0.0177	18	0.0189	9	0.0032	16	-0.0686	22	0.1678	2
LA	9.49	14	0.0098	15	0.0551	16	-0.0761	24	-0.0058	17	-0.0849	23	0.0976	7
CLE	1.5	15	-0.0077	21	-0.0274	21	0.0146	10	0.0085	13	0.0428	8	-0.0404	22
BUF	-4.6	16	0.0139	14	-0.0426	22	0.0908	4	-0.0163	18	0.0341	9	-0.1085	30
PHI	-11.51	17	-0.0103	22	0.0026	19	-0.0469	21	0.0039	15	-0.0514	18	0.0839	9
IND	-19.96	18	0.0093	16	-0.0478	23	0.0687	5	-0.0462	22	-0.0645	20	-0.0124	19
ATL	-28.45	19	0.0738	9	0.0973	11	-0.0064	16	-0.1167	29	-0.2455	31	0.0296	15
ARI	-29.74	20	0.0859	7	0.0712	14	0.1182	2	-0.1154	28	-0.1912	28	0.0177	17
CAR	-29.9	21	-0.0458	24	-0.0748	25	0.0139	11	0.0099	12	0.0748	6	-0.0975	29
DET	-36.82	22	0.0043	18	0.0906	12	-0.1302	28	-0.0419	21	-0.0468	17	-0.0413	23
CHI	-43.32	23	-0.1289	29	-0.1162	26	-0.1647	31	0.0641	4	0.0701	7	0.0506	13
DEN	-45.25	24	-0.074	25	-0.1178	27	-0.0034	15	0.0122	10	0.0178	10	0.0226	16
OAK	-45.71	25	0.0664	10	0.149	5	-0.0277	19	-0.1244	31	-0.1951	29	-0.0277	21
LAC	-47.53	26	0.009	17	0.075	13	-0.1098	26	-0.0834	25	-0.0878	24	-0.0822	27
JAX	-73.7	27	-0.0151	23	-0.0257	20	0.0078	12	-0.0887	26	-0.0652	21	-0.1297	32
NYJ	-80.88	28	-0.1486	30	-0.1631	30	-0.1371	29	0.0224	9	-0.0609	19	0.1471	4
NYG	-125.04	29	-0.0923	26	-0.1438	29	0.0028	14	-0.0795	24	-0.1778	26	0.0397	14
WAS	-171.84	30	-0.1497	31	-0.1866	32	-0.1207	27	-0.1005	27	-0.1849	27	-0.0114	18
CIN	-174.03	31	-0.1104	27	-0.1389	28	-0.0613	22	-0.1229	30	-0.2036	30	-0.0479	26
MIA	-250.05	32	-0.1633	32	-0.1757	31	-0.1372	30	-0.1764	32	-0.3098	32	-0.0427	24

Statistics are through Week 12. Computed with data pulled from official NFL play-by-play with nflscrapR, and adjusted for strength of schedule using a method similar to Massey (1997).

The top three are the same after Sunday (with the top team playing on Monday night, this can obviously change), but while the 49ers and Patriots both won their games against above-average teams, San Francisco’s thrashing of the Packers narrows their gap with New England to about an eight of an expected point for the entire season. After being dominated by the best defense in the NFL, the Cowboys offense drops essentially a tier, from near the Ravens, into a trio with the Chiefs and Vikings.

In the mid-tier, the rankings are volatile because the raw difference between teams isn’t very large. Coming into this week, the difference between Baltimore (1) and Dallas (7) was about the same as the difference between Houston (8) and Jacksonville (27). Here are some of the big movers after Sunday:

• Tampa Bay (13) surges back up into the top half of the league after breaking the resurgent Falcons and ending any hope there for a salvaged season. Carolina’s impressive, but ultimately failed 4th-quarter comeback helps move them up four spots to 20th.
• Oakland drops like a stone from 13th to 25th after being stunned by the New York Jets (28) who move up one spot, but are now at the edge of the big mix of teams in the mid-table.
• Like Atlanta and Tampa Bay, Denver (24) and Buffalo (16) nearly swap places after a one-sided matchup that I definitely thought could go the other way.

Finally, at the bottom of the table, the Jets may have escaped the orbit of the bottom of the league, and the 30th and 31st-ranked teams trade places with a narrow win for Washington and yet another loss for the Bengals.

MNF Update

Baltimore’s complete domination of the Rams on the road created some space at the top. That game ripples through the top 3, giving a little bump to the Patriots–whose single loss is to the Ravens–and touching the 49ers’ strength of schedule.

On a technical note, over the weekend, I modified the offense/defense algorithm slightly to ensure that league-total offense minus defense equals zero.

2019 NFL aEPA: Week 12

	aEPA	Rank	EPA	Rank	Off. aEPA/P	Rank	Def. aEPA/P	Rank
BAL	243.81	1	195.18	3	0.2562	1	0.0636	5
NE	201.42	2	214.39	1	0.0037	19	0.287	1
SF	193.83	3	203.35	2	0.0249	12	0.2613	2
NO	108.26	4	95.92	6	0.0925	5	0.048	6
DAL	100.68	5	124.53	4	0.1612	2	-0.0341	20
KC	87.82	6	67.88	8	0.1274	3	0.0052	14
MIN	84.16	7	102.08	5	0.1104	4	0.0099	11
SEA	60.66	8	26.61	11	0.0606	11	0.0272	8
HOU	45.5	9	33.28	10	0.0848	8	-0.033	19
TEN	26.75	10	42.82	9	-0.0015	20	0.0394	7
PIT	20.63	11	15.15	13	-0.112	28	0.1315	3
GB	19.78	12	0.93	15	0.0902	6	-0.0546	23
TB	14.04	13	-9.14	16	0.0175	13	0.0032	16
LA	9.49	14	23.08	12	0.0098	15	-0.0058	17
CLE	1.5	15	-29.93	22	-0.0077	21	0.0085	13
BUF	-4.6	16	69	7	0.0139	14	-0.0163	18
PHI	-11.51	17	-18.95	19	-0.0103	22	0.0039	15
IND	-19.96	18	3.74	14	0.0093	16	-0.0462	22
ATL	-28.45	19	-47.54	24	0.0738	9	-0.1167	29
ARI	-29.74	20	-62.25	27	0.0859	7	-0.1154	28
CAR	-29.9	21	-52.37	25	-0.0458	24	0.0099	12
DET	-36.82	22	-18.56	18	0.0043	18	-0.0419	21
CHI	-43.32	23	-17.87	17	-0.1289	29	0.0641	4
DEN	-45.25	24	-40.22	23	-0.074	25	0.0122	10
OAK	-45.71	25	-24.35	21	0.0664	10	-0.1244	31
LAC	-47.53	26	-23.51	20	0.009	17	-0.0834	25
JAX	-73.7	27	-66.74	28	-0.0151	23	-0.0887	26
NYJ	-80.88	28	-59.32	26	-0.1486	30	0.0224	9
NYG	-125.04	29	-125.71	29	-0.0923	26	-0.0795	24
WAS	-171.84	30	-159.77	30	-0.1497	31	-0.1005	27
CIN	-174.03	31	-212.7	31	-0.1104	27	-0.1229	30
MIA	-250.05	32	-249	32	-0.1633	32	-0.1764	32

Statistics are through Week 12. Computed with data pulled from official NFL play-by-play with nflscrapR, and adjusted for strength of schedule using a method similar to Massey (1997).

After another dominant win over a strong opponent, the Baltimore Ravens have finally leaped into the top spot in aEPA through Week 11. In their last four games, the Ravens have recorded wins of two or more touchdowns over the Seahawks, Patriots, Bengals and Texans. They have scored at least 30 points in each game, and conceded 20 or fewer in each. Lamar Jackson has been on fire, and the defense has strung together six solid games after a rough September. They and the New Orleans Saints are the only two teams that are in the top 10 on both offense and defense.

2019 NFL aEPA: Week 11

	aEPA	Rank	EPA	Rank	Off. aEPA/P	Rank	Def. aEPA/P	Rank
BAL	193.25	1	195.18	2	0.2847	1	-0.0608	4
NE	171.34	2	212.83	1	0.0485	16	-0.3335	1
SF	158.6	3	175.93	3	0.0926	12	-0.2603	2
NO	112.58	4	93.16	6	0.1608	7	-0.0378	7
KC	99.34	5	67.88	7	0.1973	4	0.0499	20
MIN	94.69	6	102.08	5	0.2112	3	0.0004	13
DAL	83.39	7	126.1	4	0.2718	2	0.0166	14
HOU	55.92	8	28.21	10	0.1763	6	0.0849	24
GB	50.55	9	28.36	9	0.1519	8	0.0666	21
SEA	41.34	10	11.88	13	0.0319	18	0.0281	17
LA	33.06	11	23.08	12	0.0009	22	-0.0373	8
TEN	18.48	12	24.64	11	0.0431	17	-0.0335	9
OAK	15.7	13	8.8	15	0.1828	5	0.1108	27
PIT	13.24	14	0.52	16	-0.1362	27	-0.1059	3
DEN	0.22	15	-13.71	18	0.0028	21	-0.0057	12
ATL	-2.62	16	-26.78	21	0.1191	10	0.1416	29
IND	-3.95	17	8.81	14	0.1081	11	0.0416	19
PHI	-4.93	18	-4.22	17	0.0148	20	0.0222	16
TB	-9.55	19	-29.91	23	-0.0153	23	0.0334	18
CLE	-10.67	20	-49.61	26	-0.1708	29	-0.0103	11
DET	-13.93	21	-23.15	19	0.125	9	0.1005	25
CHI	-24.71	22	-28.73	22	-0.0559	25	-0.0421	6
LAC	-28.19	23	-23.51	20	0.0781	13	0.0729	23
CAR	-35.47	24	-49.6	25	-0.0342	24	0.0179	15
ARI	-36.24	25	-62.25	27	0.0771	14	0.1458	30
BUF	-47.29	26	42.49	8	0.0584	15	-0.0463	5
JAX	-54.62	27	-48.57	24	0.0306	19	0.0672	22
NYG	-128.11	28	-114.85	29	-0.0582	26	0.1128	28
NYJ	-130.05	29	-92.47	28	-0.1915	30	-0.0147	10
CIN	-172.09	30	-198.07	31	-0.1445	28	0.1946	32
WAS	-183.13	31	-155.18	30	-0.1962	31	0.1015	26
MIA	-256.18	32	-229.32	32	-0.2303	32	0.1783	31

Statistics are through Week 11. Computed with data pulled from official NFL play-by-play with nflscrapR, and adjusted for strength of schedule using a method similar to Massey (1997).