Categories
NFL Team Efficiency

2019 Week 17 aEPA

The final games of the regular season have been played, and now, 12 teams enter the playoff tournament to determine the championship, but the real top team in 2019, regardless of the next eleven games is the Baltimore Ravens, who finish with the top passing and rushing offense and the fourth best pass defense. San Francisco ends the season as the only member of a second tier, and then New Orleans, New England and Kansas City make up a third tier.

 aEPARkOff. aEPA/PRkPass OffRkRun OffRkDef. aEPA/PRkPass DefRkRun DefRk
BAL19.610.230310.279410.198210.085250.130140.007418
SF14.3520.066680.164-0.0344190.172820.241120.07498
NO11.630.137940.22712-0.0046130.051470.0163130.12234
NE10.74-0.006517-0.0119180.0013110.190610.247810.09296
KC9.450.140620.208130.0194100.0265120.10585-0.077529
DAL7.7660.139130.15550.12772-0.023318-0.039418-0.007121
MIN5.5970.0543130.14956-0.02160.039180.0417100.03712
TB5.268-0.0067180.032516-0.0737240.08740.056170.15872
TEN5.290.063690.1033110.033380.026511-0.006150.08557
LA4.77100.0422140.117210-0.0801250.0266100.0069140.05219
SEA3.17110.066870.12368-0.00112-0.011516-0.007216-0.007122
GB2.73120.0583100.0483140.06356-0.0142170.041411-0.089230
PIT1.2113-0.144731-0.097927-0.203320.152630.135330.17771
BUF1.114-0.010221-0.0523210.04770.030190.06616-0.028123
ATL0.49150.07360.12079-0.03520-0.072423-0.1442260.015414
HOU0.36160.087250.0967130.08184-0.08525-0.1373250.0117
PHI-0.7317-0.010522-0.014619-0.023217-0.002415-0.0958220.1533
LAC-1.57180.0271150.098312-0.095129-0.057722-0.055919-0.065726
CHI-2.7819-0.095429-0.064923-0.1475310.053460.051780.045510
IND-2.820-3e-0416-0.0636220.06885-0.050821-0.102230.031713
ARI-2.91210.0569110.0321170.09993-0.097927-0.1694270.012116
DEN-2.9722-0.065424-0.070825-0.0465220.0208130.043890.00120
CLE-3.0323-0.008820-0.0364200.02829-0.037419-0.008517-0.070228
OAK-3.31240.0558120.1367-0.038821-0.109629-0.1991300.012815
DET-6.1225-0.0081190.037215-0.082227-0.077324-0.1348240.001719
CAR-6.9826-0.069125-0.104829-0.008115-0.039200.032712-0.149132
NYJ-7.827-0.15332-0.170431-0.134300.013114-0.0595200.11895
JAX-8.6428-0.053223-0.068124-0.031918-0.085926-0.083321-0.09331
NYG-10.9129-0.074427-0.117830-0.00614-0.102228-0.2147310.042111
CIN-12.0530-0.07426-0.098828-0.048323-0.126331-0.182629-0.068527
WAS-15.2531-0.134230-0.182432-0.081826-0.12130-0.18228-0.051825
MIA-15.4332-0.075528-0.072726-0.089528-0.171532-0.292832-0.029624
Categories
NFL Team Efficiency

2019 Week 16 aEPA

I’ve done a lot of work cleaning up and reorganizing my R code the last two weeks, and not much time analyzing anything. One of the things I am working on is a model of variance, which is necessary to provide win probabilities. So far, I am coming up with variance measures higher than competing measures such as DVOA and Elo, which is actually bad. Elo’s win probability is well-calibrated. If anything, Elo seems to be giving underdogs too much of a chance to win games.

I’ve been on a scraping spree! I’ve written R functions to scrape Elo from fivethirtyeight, the tables from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, and ESPN’s QBR, pass rush win rate and pass block win rate. PRWR and PBWR are just reported as percentages, and updated each Tuesday by editing a single blog post. That choice makes them full-season stats, rather than a game-to-game stats, but I am archiving it weekly going forward so they can be used in pairwise matrices. All of these data will be available after the Super Bowl, when I open up the git repo.

 aEPARkOff. aEPA/PRkPass OffRkRun OffRkDef. aEPA/PRkPass DefRkRun DefRk
BAL20.1210.246510.310110.199810.074340.11744-0.002418
SF14.4720.0491120.14026-0.0497220.192720.269320.07988
NE12.963-0.003520-0.002518-0.0052140.227310.303510.10136
NO10.4140.13440.206430.0166100.036790.008150.09427
KC10.0450.137330.22262-0.0167150.038280.12133-0.070329
DAL6.6260.14220.159440.12722-0.042421-0.072519-0.004919
MIN6.2470.055190.15335-0.0209170.049970.051180.05369
TB4.9880.0036180.051615-0.0784250.071850.0347110.15552
LA4.6590.0398130.10610-0.0722240.0278110.022130.033513
TEN3.79100.0385140.081513-0.0034120.026712-0.0168170.10325
SEA3.12110.0493110.094311-0.0045130.005140.0078160.014516
GB2.99120.064570.0527140.07315-0.0129170.031412-0.069928
BUF2.15130.003817-0.0241200.046970.0337100.08046-0.043125
HOU2.06140.089450.113290.06416-0.060523-0.118240.050710
PIT0.8615-0.133331-0.079525-0.1971320.138830.109250.18191
ATL0.79160.087760.13987-0.033221-0.083325-0.1664270.018515
PHI-1.4117-0.010522-0.011719-0.028420-0.011716-0.098230.13013
IND-1.44180.010716-0.059220.08934-0.040120-0.0808200.024914
CLE-1.719-0.001719-0.0297210.03768-0.0239180.009814-0.062227
LAC-2.19200.0162150.085312-0.104629-0.054222-0.072118-0.037224
DEN-2.4521-0.052623-0.067323-0.0185160.0165130.045710-0.014121
ARI-2.87220.0545100.0141170.12253-0.096626-0.1629260.00717
CHI-3.4923-0.107328-0.074324-0.1638310.053660.050290.048512
OAK-3.85240.059880.13378-0.024418-0.122329-0.200930-0.015622
CAR-5.8125-0.056524-0.1004270.01779-0.0351190.05147-0.16732
DET-6.3226-0.0098210.045816-0.127-0.080224-0.135325-0.006120
NYJ-9.0327-0.1632-0.188832-0.123830-9e-0415-0.0825210.11924
NYG-10.2328-0.067126-0.1174300.015311-0.100928-0.2164310.049511
JAX-10.2929-0.065825-0.090526-0.027519-0.099227-0.09422-0.113831
CIN-13.5530-0.088927-0.11428-0.062323-0.13531-0.193929-0.073930
WAS-14.1231-0.111830-0.145231-0.084126-0.125130-0.187528-0.054226
MIA-17.5132-0.108829-0.116929-0.10328-0.172932-0.304332-0.019423
Categories
NFL Team Efficiency

2019 Week 14 aEPA

Last week, I highlighted three “big games,” Buffalo vs Baltimore, San Francisco vs New Orleans and Kansas City vs New England: and in a wonderful turn of events, they were all competitive and all six teams involved had positive net aEPA. This weekend, we don’t get the same level of competition. The 49ers (2nd/8th off./2nd def.) get a break after playing two of the top three teams other than themselves, and are prohibitive home favorites against the Atlanta Falcons (18/9/27), for whom the hits keep on coming, placing Desmond Trufant and Calvin Ridley on injured reserve after their 40-20 defeat of the Panthers. The Ravens (1/1/4) are hosting the hapless Jets (27/32/15). The Patriots (3/21/1) go to Ohio to play the Bengals (30/28/30), but instead of getting takes about the expected return of the Patriots’ offense, we’ve gotten Spygate II. Kansas City (5/3/10) gets division rival Denver (20/24/11), who will try to pull of consecutive upsets against teams that beat the Patriots. The Saints (4/4/9) host the Colts (19/16/19) on Monday Night Football. All of these games could have double-digit point spreads.

The game of the week is undeniably the LA Rams (7/14/6) at the Dallas Cowboys (8/2/23). My model very slightly favors the Rams, despite home field, which hasn’t been worth much year-to-date (away teams have outscored home teams by 45 points so far this season). When Dallas has the ball, I think this comes down to whether the game plan lets Dak Prescott throw the ball. The run game will be strength against strength, but Dak’s got the second-highest aEPA/play on passing downs, and the Rams are only 12th against the pass. That’s still good, but if the Cowboys’ leverage their elite pass protection and excellent passer, they should be able to pull out of this slide. The problem is that the Rams should be able to move and score at will on this mediocre Cowboys defense. The other problem is that there is next to no chance that the Cowboys will alter their game plan and unleash Dak. They simply overvalue running throughout the organization.

2019 NFL aEPA: Week 14

 aEPARkOff. aEPA/PRkPass OffRkRun OffRkDef. aEPA/PRkPass DefRkRun DefRk
BAL269.3610.238710.289810.201910.084440.13823-0.006618
SF228.8820.067880.1735-0.0404220.223720.31920.09668
NE180.443-0.008821-0.004518-0.0154140.244610.324510.10067
NO12040.113540.163860.027990.0339-0.0085140.12165
KC111.8450.121930.19683-0.0242180.0296100.11645-0.080629
MIN82.3860.089760.20812-0.0123130.016514-0.0001130.046412
LA80.9870.0379140.105410-0.0672250.048860.0079120.10666
DAL77.5180.144220.183440.09753-0.058723-0.097223-0.02321
SEA64.4990.0593100.1026110.0176110.0218130.0085110.06210
TEN47.13100.0264150.095714-0.0522240.03378-0.0248170.13474
PIT43.5811-0.102328-0.034221-0.1814320.147330.123540.18811
TB38.34120.0072170.029616-0.0285190.03587-0.0198160.15772
HOU29.1130.102850.137570.05616-0.074724-0.1477260.057611
GB21.53140.08170.1003120.04188-0.04921-0.01415-0.096130
BUF1315-0.001719-0.0443220.056750.0221120.06966-0.059226
LAC2.24160.0452120.12718-0.086727-0.047120-0.04318-0.059527
CLE-0.16170.002718-0.0284200.04657-0.0016160.03210-0.044725
ATL-21.15180.065190.096213-0.024217-0.099527-0.1933280.010116
IND-21.84190.00816-0.0486230.07194-0.041619-0.06219-0.005217
DEN-29.4420-0.059724-0.075825-0.0294200.024110.06147-0.010319
CHI-31.821-0.096127-0.059424-0.1703310.055750.0680.043613
PHI-46.8822-0.022122-0.022319-0.046723-0.030118-0.1069240.0859
DET-54.4623-0.0025200.07715-0.131929-0.051822-0.079720-0.021820
OAK-61.55240.0576110.12389-0.01715-0.128731-0.201630-0.041324
CAR-64.2725-0.058323-0.1049270.022410-0.019170.05879-0.143732
ARI-70.7260.0401130.0104170.09952-0.118429-0.2136310.026315
NYJ-128.7327-0.170132-0.195531-0.147300.000815-0.0908210.13913
JAX-131.9428-0.062625-0.093426-0.009512-0.099528-0.092422-0.118831
NYG-159.1629-0.105729-0.159730-0.020816-0.088526-0.1941290.042414
CIN-166.5830-0.085726-0.11628-0.035621-0.119830-0.174627-0.063528
WAS-175.7931-0.14231-0.207532-0.073226-0.08725-0.14225-0.032122
MIA-246.3532-0.1230-0.128629-0.105928-0.178232-0.310532-0.032323
Statistics are through Week 13. Computed with data pulled from official NFL play-by-play with nflscrapR, and adjusted for strength of schedule using a method similar to Massey (1997).
Categories
NFL Team Efficiency

2019 Week 13 aEPA

Baltimore’s rushing offense is now more efficient than every team’s passing offense except … it’s own. Couple that offense with the third best pass defense (a mile behind New England and San Francisco), and you have real separation between the top team and everyone else through 12 games. Analytics twitter (aka, Ravens twitter) has dubbed the Ravens’ kicker Justin Tucker “The Only Kicker That Matters.” Truly, after three quarters of the season, Baltimore’s only weakness is run defense, where they are just barely below average. Unfortunately for the rest of the NFL, we’re unlikely to see an offense good enough at running to take advantage of it. The best opportunity is the Buffalo Bills this Sunday, who operate the league’s fourth best rushing attack (including scrambles, for now). If the Bills can stay on schedule, they might have a shot at making this a game. Otherwise, their sub-average passing and average defense will be no match for the juggernaut.

One of the two matchups of the week will be the Chiefs against the Patriots. Mahomes & co. are operating a top-4 offense and an above-average defense, while the Pats’ defense is still fantastic, and Houston’s performance doesn’t actually affect that much, they’ll need to be perfect unless the offense finds its feet. Brady is going through his worst slump in sixteen years right now, and there isn’t much positive to take from it. I pointed out on twitter this Sunday that we can compare Sanu’s performance with the Patriots with his performance in the Falcons offense. When we do, we find that his catch percentage is down from 78.5% to 60.7%. Part of that is being thrown to in tighter windows (his average separation is down), part is variance, but part of that is Brady just not putting it on him the way Ryan did. Brady’s accuracy is below average: 2.7% completion percentage below expectation (Ryan is tenth, at +2.1%, just in front of Lamar Jackson). Despite that, most analytics models, including mine, are going to pick New England to win, but the path to victory for the Chiefs is very similar to the one the Texans rode Sunday, and Mahomes at his best is one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL capable of causing the Patriots problems.

Last week, we had the 49ers (then-ranked 3rd) against the top-ranked Ravens, and this week, the now-2nd-ranked 49ers are traveling to the 4th-ranked Saints. Brees is no longer the deep threat he once was, with average intended air yards at 6.5, third lowest in the NFL this season (ahead of only Oakland’s Derek Carr at 6.4 and teammate Teddy Bridgewater at 6.2), and he’s not throwing into tight windows (his 10% aggressiveness is lowest in the NFL). He’s 4/17 with 2 interceptions on throws 20 yards or more downfield this season. Now he goes into the teeth of the defense that kept the Ravens in check last week. Offense is generally less variable than defense, but the Saints offense was recently held to a field goal by the 29th-ranked Falcons defense at home, coming off a bye week. Can’t wait to see this one.

2019 NFL aEPA: Week 13

 aEPARkOff. aEPA/PRkPass OffRkRun OffRkDef. aEPA/PRkPass DefRkRun DefRk
BAL260.6610.260210.308710.228310.064240.12233-0.026920
SF217.4120.0389120.13936-0.0556230.25820.387910.08998
NE198.730.0098170.023316-0.0143150.260110.343320.1117
NO117.9540.087460.111100.043860.061150.0178100.14823
KC85.9850.11340.18754-0.0298180.0122110.09085-0.087528
DAL81.5660.14320.185450.09543-0.047720-0.077421-0.020919
SEA79.3370.071980.131570.018590.03280.017110.084610
MIN71.1980.100250.208920.007712-0.001516-0.0241150.036214
HOU57.5790.120330.190130.02368-0.054222-0.1131250.055911
LA57.27100.0269130.089512-0.077260.03427-0.023140.11176
PIT42.4811-0.094127-0.041823-0.1638310.138930.114640.18021
TB28.17120.0049190.016318-0.009140.029310-0.0309160.17062
TEN23.25130.001200.059615-0.0724240.02959-0.0397180.14735
GB21.54140.08670.126490.014210-0.051621-0.012113-0.104230
BUF10.9150.0214-0.0188200.07544-0.0004150.05587-0.102829
CLE3.9116-0.001621-0.0274210.034170.0068140.03689-0.034624
IND-13.44170.011315-0.0413220.06725-0.036219-0.039317-0.032122
ATL-33.6180.057590.084313-0.025117-0.107729-0.2237310.024515
LAC-35.93190.0079180.076914-0.1127-0.061123-0.066120-0.0627
PHI-41.3420-0.017722-0.014519-0.048221-0.029118-0.1041240.08579
CHI-41.7821-0.108329-0.082726-0.1669320.05260.049380.045713
OAK-44.68220.0553100.13088-0.031820-0.107628-0.171427-0.027421
CAR-46.7923-0.047123-0.079250.012811-0.0106170.0726-0.142132
DET-53.14240.01160.096311-0.125128-0.066724-0.090623-0.041325
DEN-58.7325-0.084425-0.119828-0.0317190.0074130.0068120.017516
ARI-68.35260.0485110.0212170.10682-0.126231-0.2093300.014217
JAX-93.4727-0.050724-0.075124-0.00413-0.069425-0.050319-0.106731
NYJ-108.6528-0.164632-0.194731-0.1326300.012112-0.0776220.1484
NYG-150.929-0.104828-0.15530-0.021416-0.089727-0.2019290.048112
CIN-158.4430-0.092526-0.114627-0.051422-0.111930-0.176228-0.046526
WAS-170.8631-0.143931-0.21232-0.073625-0.088926-0.162926-0.008818
MIA-237.7632-0.129730-0.132729-0.128429-0.17232-0.298732-0.033723
Statistics are through Week 13. Computed with data pulled from official NFL play-by-play with nflscrapR, and adjusted for strength of schedule using a method similar to Massey (1997).
Categories
NFL Team Efficiency

Week 12 Run/Pass Splits

Through week 12, the Ravens’ running game is better than any other team’s total offense, and better than every team’s passing offense except the Vikings and … the Ravens. Baltimore’s offense is just miles ahead of everyone else right now, and whether or not it is sustainable, it’s been a joy to watch. On Sunday, the Ravens host the 49ers and the best pass defense in the NFL.

2019 NFL aEPA: Week 12 Full Table

 aEPARkOff. aEPA/PRkPass OffRkRun OffRkDef. aEPA/PRkPass DefRkRun DefRk
BAL243.8110.256210.301210.233610.063650.11613-0.02520
NE201.4220.0037190.025717-0.0372200.28710.391120.09926
SF193.8330.0249120.122610-0.0617230.261320.391610.074812
NO108.2640.092550.125190.03760.0486-0.0025120.14645
DAL100.6850.161220.218530.09143-0.034120-0.037516-0.044525
KC87.8260.127430.20234-0.0238180.0052140.07765-0.082328
MIN84.1670.110440.236920.0076130.009911-0.028140.08488
SEA60.6680.0606110.13656-0.018170.027280.0037110.081510
HOU45.590.084880.125580.03117-0.03319-0.0926250.08111
TEN26.7510-0.0015200.067915-0.087250.03947-0.0293150.15823
PIT20.6311-0.11228-0.0724-0.1718320.131530.096740.18581
GB19.78120.090260.125770.03088-0.054623-0.004513-0.120831
TB14.04130.0175130.0177180.018990.003216-0.0686220.16782
LA9.49140.0098150.055116-0.076124-0.005817-0.0849230.09767
CLE1.515-0.007721-0.0274210.0146100.0085130.04288-0.040422
BUF-4.6160.013914-0.0426220.09084-0.0163180.03419-0.108530
PHI-11.5117-0.0103220.002619-0.0469210.003915-0.0514180.08399
IND-19.96180.009316-0.0478230.06875-0.046222-0.064520-0.012419
ATL-28.45190.073890.097311-0.006416-0.116729-0.2455310.029615
ARI-29.74200.085970.0712140.11822-0.115428-0.1912280.017717
CAR-29.921-0.045824-0.0748250.0139110.0099120.07486-0.097529
DET-36.82220.0043180.090612-0.130228-0.041921-0.046817-0.041323
CHI-43.3223-0.128929-0.116226-0.1647310.064140.070170.050613
DEN-45.2524-0.07425-0.117827-0.0034150.0122100.0178100.022616
OAK-45.71250.0664100.1495-0.027719-0.124431-0.195129-0.027721
LAC-47.53260.009170.07513-0.109826-0.083425-0.087824-0.082227
JAX-73.727-0.015123-0.0257200.007812-0.088726-0.065221-0.129732
NYJ-80.8828-0.148630-0.163130-0.1371290.02249-0.0609190.14714
NYG-125.0429-0.092326-0.1438290.002814-0.079524-0.1778260.039714
WAS-171.8430-0.149731-0.186632-0.120727-0.100527-0.184927-0.011418
CIN-174.0331-0.110427-0.138928-0.061322-0.122930-0.203630-0.047926
MIA-250.0532-0.163332-0.175731-0.137230-0.176432-0.309832-0.042724
Statistics are through Week 12. Computed with data pulled from official NFL play-by-play with nflscrapR, and adjusted for strength of schedule using a method similar to Massey (1997).
Categories
NFL Team Efficiency

2019 Week 12 aEPA

The top three are the same after Sunday (with the top team playing on Monday night, this can obviously change), but while the 49ers and Patriots both won their games against above-average teams, San Francisco’s thrashing of the Packers narrows their gap with New England to about an eight of an expected point for the entire season. After being dominated by the best defense in the NFL, the Cowboys offense drops essentially a tier, from near the Ravens, into a trio with the Chiefs and Vikings.

In the mid-tier, the rankings are volatile because the raw difference between teams isn’t very large. Coming into this week, the difference between Baltimore (1) and Dallas (7) was about the same as the difference between Houston (8) and Jacksonville (27). Here are some of the big movers after Sunday:

  • Tampa Bay (13) surges back up into the top half of the league after breaking the resurgent Falcons and ending any hope there for a salvaged season. Carolina’s impressive, but ultimately failed 4th-quarter comeback helps move them up four spots to 20th.
  • Oakland drops like a stone from 13th to 25th after being stunned by the New York Jets (28) who move up one spot, but are now at the edge of the big mix of teams in the mid-table.
  • Like Atlanta and Tampa Bay, Denver (24) and Buffalo (16) nearly swap places after a one-sided matchup that I definitely thought could go the other way.

Finally, at the bottom of the table, the Jets may have escaped the orbit of the bottom of the league, and the 30th and 31st-ranked teams trade places with a narrow win for Washington and yet another loss for the Bengals.

MNF Update

Baltimore’s complete domination of the Rams on the road created some space at the top. That game ripples through the top 3, giving a little bump to the Patriots–whose single loss is to the Ravens–and touching the 49ers’ strength of schedule.

On a technical note, over the weekend, I modified the offense/defense algorithm slightly to ensure that league-total offense minus defense equals zero.

2019 NFL aEPA: Week 12

 aEPARankEPARankOff. aEPA/PRankDef. aEPA/PRank
BAL243.811195.1830.256210.06365
NE201.422214.3910.0037190.2871
SF193.833203.3520.0249120.26132
NO108.26495.9260.092550.0486
DAL100.685124.5340.16122-0.034120
KC87.82667.8880.127430.005214
MIN84.167102.0850.110440.009911
SEA60.66826.61110.0606110.02728
HOU45.5933.28100.08488-0.03319
TEN26.751042.829-0.0015200.03947
PIT20.631115.1513-0.112280.13153
GB19.78120.93150.09026-0.054623
TB14.0413-9.14160.0175130.003216
LA9.491423.08120.009815-0.005817
CLE1.515-29.9322-0.0077210.008513
BUF-4.6166970.013914-0.016318
PHI-11.5117-18.9519-0.0103220.003915
IND-19.96183.74140.009316-0.046222
ATL-28.4519-47.54240.07389-0.116729
ARI-29.7420-62.25270.08597-0.115428
CAR-29.921-52.3725-0.0458240.009912
DET-36.8222-18.56180.004318-0.041921
CHI-43.3223-17.8717-0.1289290.06414
DEN-45.2524-40.2223-0.074250.012210
OAK-45.7125-24.35210.066410-0.124431
LAC-47.5326-23.51200.00917-0.083425
JAX-73.727-66.7428-0.015123-0.088726
NYJ-80.8828-59.3226-0.1486300.02249
NYG-125.0429-125.7129-0.092326-0.079524
WAS-171.8430-159.7730-0.149731-0.100527
CIN-174.0331-212.731-0.110427-0.122930
MIA-250.0532-24932-0.163332-0.176432
Statistics are through Week 12. Computed with data pulled from official NFL play-by-play with nflscrapR, and adjusted for strength of schedule using a method similar to Massey (1997).
Categories
NFL Team Efficiency

2019 Week 11 aEPA

After another dominant win over a strong opponent, the Baltimore Ravens have finally leaped into the top spot in aEPA through Week 11. In their last four games, the Ravens have recorded wins of two or more touchdowns over the Seahawks, Patriots, Bengals and Texans. They have scored at least 30 points in each game, and conceded 20 or fewer in each. Lamar Jackson has been on fire, and the defense has strung together six solid games after a rough September. They and the New Orleans Saints are the only two teams that are in the top 10 on both offense and defense.

2019 NFL aEPA: Week 11

 aEPARankEPARankOff. aEPA/PRankDef. aEPA/PRank
BAL193.251195.1820.28471-0.06084
NE171.342212.8310.048516-0.33351
SF158.63175.9330.092612-0.26032
NO112.58493.1660.16087-0.03787
KC99.34567.8870.197340.049920
MIN94.696102.0850.211230.000413
DAL83.397126.140.271820.016614
HOU55.92828.21100.176360.084924
GB50.55928.3690.151980.066621
SEA41.341011.88130.0319180.028117
LA33.061123.08120.000922-0.03738
TEN18.481224.64110.043117-0.03359
OAK15.7138.8150.182850.110827
PIT13.24140.5216-0.136227-0.10593
DEN0.2215-13.71180.002821-0.005712
ATL-2.6216-26.78210.1191100.141629
IND-3.95178.81140.1081110.041619
PHI-4.9318-4.22170.0148200.022216
TB-9.5519-29.9123-0.0153230.033418
CLE-10.6720-49.6126-0.170829-0.010311
DET-13.9321-23.15190.12590.100525
CHI-24.7122-28.7322-0.055925-0.04216
LAC-28.1923-23.51200.0781130.072923
CAR-35.4724-49.625-0.0342240.017915
ARI-36.2425-62.25270.0771140.145830
BUF-47.292642.4980.058415-0.04635
JAX-54.6227-48.57240.0306190.067222
NYG-128.1128-114.8529-0.0582260.112828
NYJ-130.0529-92.4728-0.191530-0.014710
CIN-172.0930-198.0731-0.1445280.194632
WAS-183.1331-155.1830-0.1962310.101526
MIA-256.1832-229.3232-0.2303320.178331
Statistics are through Week 11. Computed with data pulled from official NFL play-by-play with nflscrapR, and adjusted for strength of schedule using a method similar to Massey (1997).